While auction houses results
in Hong Kong continue have painted a positive picture overall for 2018, the
latest auction results suggest a more cautious 2019 outlook with a possible
cooling of the market in the offing.
Christie’s Hong Kong 2018
autumn auctions raised HK$2.75 billion across 17 sales in late November, an
11.6% fall from the HK$3.11 billion raised over its spring 2018 auctions and a
19.8% fall from the HK$3.43 billion the auction house had realized in the 2017
autumn sales across 18 sales. A similar market inflection could be observed at
Phillips’ auctions which raised HK$305.88 million over four auctions in
November, down 28.5% on its haul in May and slightly lower than the HK$318.07
million raised at its November 2017 sales (with only three auctions).
At the start of the autumn
sales in September, the art market in Hong Kong was still going strong with
Sotheby’s raising HK$3.64 billion, similar to the amount achieved at its spring
auctions and a 15% increase on its 2017 autumn sales. But a closer look at the
details may have hinted at what was to come, as several of the top lots sold
below their upper estimate. Meanwhile at Poly Auction, China’s biggest
auctioneer, the takings were down 50% at just HK$900 million year-on-year and
were also down from the HK$1.25 billion raised in the spring.
“The sentiments of collectors
are hugely tainted by the uncertainty towards the current economic and business
outlook given the embarrassment of the China-US relations. Collectors in
Mainland China and in Hong Kong are generally secure in terms of financial
standing but they are becoming more astute,” remarks Henrietta Tsui-Leung,
founder of Galerie Ora-Ora, adding Chinese collectors are not only becoming
more cautious, their tastes are also changing. Tsui-Leung remains
“conservatively positive” about the 2019 outlook, noting that the contemporary
art market is always welcoming new collectors.
Market participants were
quick to point out that results can be skewed from year to year by a few big
lots or other factors, including the varying desirability of works on offer.
Jonathan Crockett, Deputy
Chairman and Head of 20th Century & Contemporary Art, Asia at Phillips,
said it was premature to make any specific comments on the long-term impact of
the US-China trade tensions on the art market in Asia. And while he expressed
concern about the rising tensions and the uncertainty it creates in the market,
he points out Hong Kong is now such an important art market on the global stage
that buyers and sellers there come from every part of the globe, not just Asia.
“The auction world – like
every other part of the global economy – reacts to political and financial
change. There are, of course, uncertainties in both spheres, but we have
experienced uncertainties in the past and we know that high quality pieces at
realistic estimates will continue to find buyers. The challenge for us remains
to work hard and continue to deliver what collectors want,” says Edward
Wilkinson, Executive Director of Bonhams Asia.
A version of this story was published in the Hong Kong Business Review (January)